Senior Researcher and Deputy Director of the Arab Reform Initiative

The ratification of the “Code of Ethics”, which obliges the large political blocs to prohibit strife and political violence, does not alter this reality; nor does the fact that many of the 19 million citizens eligible to vote have reservations about the electoral process, as evidenced by low voter registration levels. The threat of abstentions has perhaps abated due to a sense of the importance of these elections, within the fateful context of the anticipated American withdrawal. However, general despair and disgust at rampant corruption and the failure of successive administrations to provide security and basic services such as electricity, education, health and housing, will lead to the deletion of many party lists.

American officials accompany their emphasis on withdrawal with their “fears” for a major escalation in violence and over the formation of a new government, since none of the major blocs expects to obtain an absolute majority. The Americans fear that al-Maliki will be forced into an alliance with al-Hakeem, the Sadrists and Fadhila. For after the elections Tehran has succeeded where it previously failed, with al-Maliki’s refusal to join the Iraqi National Coalition. It also angered the Americans that al-Maliki succumbed to Iranian pressure to disqualify Sunni electoral candidates on the pretext of their ties to the Baath Party. Meanwhile, Washington is striving to increase Sunni political participation to curb Iran’s dominance in Iraq following its withdrawal, and to satisfy the demands of neighbouring Arab countries unable to play a role in Iraq. This weakness reflects the collapse of the official Arab order, while Tehran roams freely around Iraq and Turkey’s influence grows in the north.

The US has provided for its withdrawal by concluding dozens of “official” agreements with the current government, especially agreements on the economy and education, the former providing for control of the exploitation of Iraqi oil and gas, and the latter a foothold in building the country’s future. However, Washington appreciates the fragility of these guarantees, which remain subject to the rules of engagement with Iran and developments in the Arab region. But does arbitrary control of the elections provide any firmer guarantees? It is highly doubtful. And when the storm arrives, if indeed it does, Iraq will again pay the price through the bloodshed of its people and their legitimate right to a dignified life.

This month read our policy briefs "2010: Sudan Faces Danger of South Secession "(also in Arabic) , by Haydar Ibrahim Ali, and Integration of the Islamist Movement : The Case of Algeria, by Daho Djerbal (also in Arabic)

What is meant by ’global democracy’? Most people say that we need it, but what does it involve?

Egypt: Council Head Faces Judges’ Ire Over Female Appointments

24 February 2010

Historic Darfur Truce Signed

ElBaradei Says He’s Ready to Face Mubarak in Elections

Saudi to Grant Women Court Access

Poor Prognosis for Iraq’s Elections

25 February 2010

Sudan: On-again off-again

25 February 2010

Egypt, The MB’s New Leadership: Implications and Limits

18 February 2010

Egypt: ElBaradei Announced the Formation of A Coalition to Amend the Constitution, by Ahmed Mustafa

Beirut: Announcement of an Independent Palestinian Movement Opposed to Negotiations and Supporting Resistance to Occupation, by Leila Bassam

Sudan: Khartoum Sets in Motion the Doha Agreement through the Release of Political Prisoners, Dar al Hayat

Lebanon: Amendments of the Municipal Code Postponed Again, An-Nahar

Saudi Arabia: Muntada al-Thulatha Discusses Issues on Social Coexistence in Saudi Society, Muntada al-Thulatha’

Yemen: Between Two axes, by Abdullah Ali Sabri