Our Analysis of Events Taking Place in The Saudi Kingdom Now

Published in November 11, 2017

Translated by: Ahmed Fathy

Firstly:

1- Donald Trump has caused an earthquake in the traditional American policies; he has threatened to milk the Saudi cow and to decisively confront both Iran and ISIS, and he promised to get closer to Russia, and this opposes the policies of Obama. Once Trump has become president, the Saudi kingdom sought to win him to its side and managed to appease him by giving the USA hundreds of US$ billions. The policies of king Salman and his son the crown-prince are in tune with those of the new American president; in fact, new bases of the American-Saudi relations has been established recently.         

2- The above point coincides with two factors. Firstly, ISIS terrorists are now defeated and about to disappear from Iraq and Syria, and this indicates the victory of Iran and its ally, the terrorist group Hezbollah, and that Iranian influence has expanded from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon as well as within Yemen. Secondly, mutual nuclear threats loom in the horizon between Trump and the president of North Korea. The USA tightens the sanctions imposed on North Korea and it deals with those who deals with North Korea in the military and trade fields with hostility, especially Iran that defies such American sanctions imposed on North Korea. This increases the hostility between Iran and Trump, who casts doubt on the nuclear agreement between Iran and the six great powers (i.e., the USA, the UK, Russia, France, China, and Germany).        

3- At the same time, Israel (whose security is a priority for the USA) declares that Iran and its ally Hezbollah (in Lebanon) are its hostile enemies; this makes the Saudi, Israeli, and American policies united in the stance against Iran. King Salman and his son, the crown-prince, have to ally themselves to Israel against their enemy, Iran, and to lead the region into the implementation of the American agenda to wage a war against Iran, so that Iran is deprived from harvesting the results of crushing ISIS terrorists in Syria.     

4- The Saudi kingdom had to change its policies with Russia; king Salman visited Moscow and made several agreements there. Trump's drawing nearer to Russia indicates that Washington and Moscow seek this solution: the USA would leave Syria to Russia in return for Russian endeavors to end the Iranian influence in Syria. In fact, Russia and Iran compete in reaching the Mediterranean Sea through Syria. Russia has its maritime military bases in Syria and will not allow any rivals to it in Syria after defending Bashar Al-Assad and saving Syria from being divided and ruined. Russian ambitions since the 19^th century and the era of the Ottoman rule of the Levant are to reach the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea. Iran has its own coasts within warm waters elsewhere. When the Iranian influence ends in Syria, the Russian influence there will be a barrier between Iran (and Iraq which is dominated-by-Iran) on one hand and the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon on the other hand. The Syrian president, Al-Assad, is greatly indebted  for his existence (and that of the Shiite Alawites sect) to Russia, the country that insists on his remaining the president of Syria after the massacres he committed against the rebels in Syria; this means he will be an obedient servant to Russia and will not pose a threat to Israel, however sinister his statements about Israel are.         

Secondly: implementing plans within the Saudi scene:

1- The USA agreed to allow the Saudi crown-prince, M. Ibn Salman, to get rid of its agent, M. Ibn Nayef, the former crown-prince, and to help M. Ibn Salman to confiscate wealth and power inside the Saudi kingdom. Though Trump has been busy with his talks with China to face North Korea, he has not forgotten to announce his support for Ibn Salman who incarcerated senior Saudi princes and confiscated their money.

2- The Saudi kingdom has established a center for 'moderation' to face extremism (i.e., to gradually eliminate Wahabism) and has introduced reform in the Saudi curricula to remove Wahabi influence gradually. These endeavors have been praised by the US Secretary of State. King Salman has launched a center to review the so-called hadiths and his son has announced the new trend toward adopting a 'moderate' form of 'Islam' and thus he disowns Wahabism. These endeavors have coincided with limiting the role of Saudi religious police, allowing Saudi women to drive cars, and controlling Wahabi clergymen that fill cyberspace with mad fatwas such as the ones about supporting ISIS terrorists and allowing incest and sex jihad. Hence, the Saudi regime that is being prepared will have only a tiny room for Wahabism, and this will stop the Wahabi threat of terrorism within the West countries. The tiny room that will be reserved to Wahabism inside the Saudi kingdom is to incite people and countries against Shiites in general and Iran in particular. The Saudi clergymen of Al-Sheikh family members obey the Saudi royal family members blindly, or else, they will be incarcerated in prisons, as the Saudi crown-prince does not accept silence and he requires full support and applause from the Saudi Wahabi clergymen. Those servile and obsequious Wahabi sheikhs will never dare to oppose anything regarding eliminating Wahabism gradually or regarding touristic projects in the Red Sea, as they fear to be incarcerated by the Saudi crown-prince who incarcerated and humiliated the senior Saudi princes.          

Thirdly: implementing plans within the Saudi foreign policies:

1- The first step has been the historic visit of king Salman to Moscow to introduce joint projects between the Saudi kingdom and Russia and to allow Russia full control of Syria. It was a news headline that king Salman told the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that he does not oppose the fact that Al-Assad remains as the Syrian president in return for ending the ties between Al-Assad and Iran.

2- The Egyptian newspaper and website (Al-Masry Al-Youm) (www.almasryalyoum.com) mentions in Arabic this piece of news about Saudi new gifts of money to Egypt, after another gift from M. Ibn Salman to Egypt, which is the incarceration of the Saudi businessman who has donated money to the Ethiopian dam that would harm Egypt and its share of the River Nile water. We guess that there is another expected gift that will be the basis of Saudi negotiations with Egypt about money gifts presented to Egypt; namely, the hundreds of millions of US$ of investments in Egypt by the incarcerated Saudi prince Al-Waleed Ibn Talal. We guess that such money will be divided between M. Ibn Salman and the military generals who rule Egypt; their pockets are bottomless and covet more money. Would this make the military generals who rule Egypt support the war that might be waged by M. Ibn Salman against Iran? Does the Saudi crown-prince desire to recruit part of the Egyptian armed forces as mercenaries in such a war? Let us remember that M. Ibn Salman has enlisted the help of Blackwater mercenaries and Egyptian experts of security.         

3- The increasing Iranian influence in Yemen led M. Ibn Salman, with help from his allies: Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, etc., to wage a war against Yemen that resulted in massacres, famine, and epidemics. This means that M. Ibn Salman is a war criminal par excellence, but he is not afraid to be questioned because he is protected by the USA. M. Ibn Salman (who desires leadership at any cost) seized the chance to force Qatar submit to him by imposing a siege on Qatar (with the aid of his allies: Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, etc.) that might lead to an imminent war. The USA did not like this siege of Qatar because of the American military base there that threatens Iran. M. Ibn Salman is in deep trouble now, as he cannot retreat from Yemen nor from the siege of Qatar and he also cannot achieve victory in Yemen or to go on threatening to wage a war against Qatar. We guess that M. Ibn Salman desires to enlist the help of the Egyptian army, the most powerful armed forces in the Arab region.

4- To serve the USA, the UAE rented the Socotra archipelago located in the Arabian Sea near the Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Thus, the USA will have an American military base in Socotra besides the American military base in Qatar. Israel currently controls the Dahlak archipelago in the north area of the Mandeb Strait this means that Iran is prevented from reaching such a location to provide aid and weapons to its allies in Yemen, the Houthis, and from reaching its ally in Lebanon, the terrorist group Hezbollah, through Syria. Facing Iran continues as the Yemeni president Mansour Hadi is prevented from leaving the Saudi kingdom; his role has ended and he must obey his masters and step aside.   

5- Defeating and crushing ISIS terrorists in Syria means victory for Iran and Hezbollah. The response is to transfer the battlefield of sectarian strife to Lebanon (the fertile soil of sectarian strife within the Lebanese civil war of 1975-1990) in order to keep Hezbollah busy in a war that will weaken it so as not to make it pose a veritable danger for Israel. This new war will enrich dealers of weapons. This international plan has made king Salman invite the Sunnite Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri to stay in the Saudi kingdom. Once arrived in Riyadh, within his speech, Al-Hariri tendered his resignation and verbally attacked Iran while expressing that he might have been assassinated if he had stayed any longer in Beirut. This is an unprecedented step in international relations. Of course, Al-Hariri is an agent of the Saudi kingdom and he holds its nationality; he has to obey M. Ibn Salman by coming with his family to Riyadh to stay, exactly as the poor Yemeni president did before him. Fearing for the future of Lebanon, the French president visited Riyadh recently, as historically, France has always taken much interest in the Lebanese affairs.     

6- The Shiite-Sunnite conflict has led to the fact that Israel is no longer the enemy number one of the Sunnite world; Iran is now the enemy number one of the Sunnite world. Some reports assert that the USA might give Israel the green light to launch military attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, within support from the Saudi kingdom and other monarchies of the Gulf. Of course the secret, non-official, close Israeli-Saudi ties and relations lack overt official diplomatic relations, and this is the mission of Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law and senior advisor) who shuttles between Tel Aviv and Riyadh to launch the official diplomatic relations. At the same time, the terrorist group Hamas in Gaza is being forced now to surrender its arms to the Palestinian authority of the West Bank, by the help of the Egyptian president, Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, and the president of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. The USA announced the promise of large rewards to those who provide any pieces of information that will lead to arresting any of the Hezbollah leaders.         

Fourthly: the stance of Iran:

1- Iran has lifted the ceiling of its protest against Saudi Arabia to an unprecedented level. The Houthis launched a rocket near Riyadh to warn the Saudis that the zero-hour draws nearer.   

2- The 37-year-old Saudi prince, Turki Ibn M. Ibn Fahd who is the grandson of the late king Fahd and the eldest son of the incarcerated prince M. Ibn Fahd (former prince and governor of the oil-rich Al-Ahsa region of Shiites inside the KSA), has been smuggled into Iran and received the political asylum; for sure, Iran will negotiate the Saudi royal family over this prince. This fugitive prince was a minister and a consultant inside the Saudi Royal Court and he knows lots of secrets to reveal. It is noteworthy that the Saudi prince who was the deputy governor of Aseer region, Mansour Ibn Muqrin Ibn Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud, tried to flee in his private helicopter that crashed (or rather made to appear as such, as others assert it was hit intentionally). This prince has been killed because he tried to flee and he protested against M. Ibn Salman being appointed as the crown-prince. This late prince sent a message to about 1000 Saudi princes to take his side to protest against being appointed as the crown-prince, while asserting that the senior princes cannot be reliable, asserting also that young Saudi princes must revolt against king Salman. When he tried to flee, he was assassinated and the helicopter crash is made to appear as if it were an accident. This means he posed a veritable threat to M. Ibn Salman, and his assassination took place after less than one day after the so-called anti-corruption campaign that led to the incarceration of many Saudi princes.      

Lastly:

 The world is poised for turmoil, and the Saudi kingdom is in the heart of this imminent turmoil; to what extent would this turmoil influence the future of the Saudi kingdom, especially that it is on the brink of imminent collapse? Would the Saudi kingdom remain for more years or would it collapse soon?