The Weekly Wire

On Mon, 5/17/10, Project on Middle East Democracy wrote:

Dear ahmed,

Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy!  

Last week the Egyptian government extended its emergency law for another two years, sparking widespread criticism from across the political spectrum.  Lebanon's municipal elections continued to proceed without violence or major disruption, while turnout appeared to decrease and allegations of widespread bribery emerged.  The Iraqi parliamentary election recount essentially confirmed the original results, while political coalition continued. In Washington, many debated the place of democracy in the Obama administration's agenda, while critics derided a potential endowment for Egypt as a "slush fund" for President Mubarak. 

For more detailed coverage of the debates surrounding U.S. foreign policy and the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, be sure to check out our blog, the POMED Wire.   

The Weekly Wire

May 17, 2010

Legislation

No relevant legislation acted upon by Congress last week.

Congressional Hearings

On Wednesday (5/12), the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing entitled, "Sudan: A Critical Moment for the CPA, Darfur and the Region." The hearing featured testimonyfrom Major General Scott Gration, USAF (Ret.), Special Envoy to Sudan, as well as opening statements from Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) as well as Ranking Member Richard Lugar (R-IN).

Also on Wednesday, the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee held a hearing to explore the history, efficacy, and enforcement of sanctions targeting companies who do business with both the United States and Iran. The committee invited three individuals to provide testimony: Danielle Pletka, Vice President of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute; Joseph Christoff, Director of International Affairs and Trade at the Government Accountability Office; and Congressman Ted Deutch (D-FL). POMED's notes are available in PDF or on our blog.

From Washington

Revisiting the "Mubarak Trust Fund" for Egypt: Following Stephen McInerney's previous report on a prospective aid endowment for the Egyptian government, Josh Rogin shed more light on the details of the endowment, highlighting that critics view the endowment as a "slush fund" that would do nothing more than allow President Mubarak's regime to secure much-needed aid "without being compelled to make progress on democracy and human rights." Egypt's proposal [PDF] requests around $4 billion over a 10-year period to be administered by the Egyptian-American Friendship Foundation, while the State Department's provisional counterproposal [PDF] is a whittled-down $1 billion with a few strings attached.

Rogin quoted Tom Malinowski who believes the fund will inevitably be seen as empowering Mubarak, and Jennifer Rubin views the endowment as emblematic of President Obama's "bizarrely misguided Muslim-outreach policy" that focuses on reaching out to authoritarian regimes at the expense of the populations of those countries. Scott Carpenter pushed back as well, calling the concept "bad for both American taxpayers and the Egyptian people" and advising the administration to pause in order to review the objectives of the U.S.-Egypt aid relationship.

Obama's Agenda, Democracy, and Human Rights:Unpacking the last year of U.S. foreign policy, George Packer delineated what he believes is President Obama's international modus operandi: His instinct to strike a balance between engagement with authoritarian regimes and criticism of them has led to a nuanced, Bush 41-esque view of geopolitics that shirks a single abstract doctrine in favor of a country-by-country approach. Yet even though Obama has "never placed democracy and human rights at the center of his foreign policy," Packer refers to the president's Nobel Prize acceptance speech in Oslo - specifically his insistence that "that there's something irreducible that we all share" - to acknowledge that Obama may, at times, move beyond realpolitik.

In the Wall Street Journal, Saad Eddin Ibrahim noted that, "One year after President Barack Obama's highly celebrated speech in Cairo supporting Arab democracy, there is a clear and loud expression of disappointment in the region."  Ibrahim went on to urge the Obama administration to seize the opportunity to support democracy in Egypt: "What's needed from the Obama administration and other Western democracies is a demand for free and fair contested elections under the watchful eyes of international observers," concluding by declaring that, "As Egypt goes so goes the rest of the Arab world."

In his weekly column at ForeignPolicy.com, James Traub askswhether the administration has abandoned democracy in its effort to pursue an "anti-Bush" foreign policy. Traub asserts that "Arab regimes' intransigence on matters of democracy and human rights poses the same problem for President Barack Obama as it did for George W. Bush..." But in his desire "to offer a fresh start" based on the core tenets of his speech in Cairo - "mutual respect, mutual interests, and mutual responsibility" - Obama may be a bit too reluctant to offer criticism of Arab leaders and may not be doing too little to change the

nondemocratic nature of the region. "One of the few things Washington can do," he suggested, "is to push, privately and publicly, to open up the space granted to political parties, NGOs, and, yes, entrepreneurs," adding that, "Sometimes it matters to be seen doing the right thing, even if it doesn't work."

Does Religious Freedom Register as a Foreign Policy Priority? Continuing to spearhead the effort to more seriously integrate a focus on international religious freedom (IRF) into the broader U.S. foreign policy calculus, Thomas Farr of the Berkley Center at Georgetown University drew upon the recently released U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) annual report to raise questions about the Obama administration's commitment on this issue. Specifically, Farr wonders whether President Obama and Secretary Clinton will decide to "retool and upgrade an IRF policy that was neglected by prior administrations of both parties," noting that religious freedom strategies are much more than simply a campaign of altruism; "they can also help achieve the national security goals" laid out in USCIRF's report.

Cultivating Afghan Democracy by Empowering Afghan Women:After a trip to the region, Valerie M. Hudson teamed up with Patricia Leidl to reveal what they believe is the single most glaring deficiency in U.S. policy toward Afghanistan: poor support for Afghan women. The authors report that President Hamid Karzai's government foments ill-treatment through "legislation that denies or severely limits women's rights to inherit, divorce, or have guardianship of their own children." Hudson and Leidl implore President Obama to, as part of the coalition's comprehensive strategy to stabilize Afghanistan, start building more egalitarian institutions of democratic governance that will "groom a moderate, educated middle class of young women and men ... to shape their society in a progressive way."

From the Middle East

Egypt Extends Emergency Law: Less than 12 hours after Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif formally proposed extending the three decade old emergency law for another two years, Egypt's parliament voted in favor of the measure by an overwhelming majority.The new law modifies elements of previous versions by abolishing powers, such as media censorship, property confiscation and telephone surveillance, originally given to the police. "This step," said Prime Minister Nazif," shows the world that we are a state that respects its commitments in the area of human rights, and respects the rights and freedoms of its citizens."

President Obama's press secretary, Robert Gibbs, released a statement that the U.S. is "disappointed" by the law's renewal and urged the Egyptian government to "repeal the State of Emergency." Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also stated that the extension was "regrettable" and likewise encouraged its repeal "within the coming months." Commentary'sJennifer Rubinfound it problematic that the U.S. government did not use stronger language,like being "deeply concerned" or "profoundly troubled." A Washington Post editorial, however, thought that the "strong statement" should mark the "beginning of a more active policy" especially in light of the Obama administration's policy of "soft-pedal(ing) the cause of democracy and human rights in Egypt and across the Middle East."

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Working Group on Egypt issued another public letter(having done so last month) to Secretary Clinton calling on her to quickly and effectively take advantage of the U.S.'s unique position - as a major aid contributor and strategic partner - "to persuade President Mubarak to lift the state of emergency now." Among the signatories were Elliott Abrams, Thomas Carothers, Brian Katulis, Tom Malinowski, Michele Dunne, Scott Carpenter, Ellen Bork, Robert Kaganand Daniel Calingaert. Freedom House also condemned the law's passage, as did members of the Egyptian opposition,including Mohamed ElBaradei.

Prior to the government's vote, a couple hundred protestors led by former presidential candidate Ayman Nour demonstrated in front of the parliament. Questioning the effectiveness of these, and other, protests by young Egyptian anti-government movements, Amro Hassan of the Los Angeles Times argued that they lack the organization, experience and resolve necessary to mount forceful pressure on the Mubarak government. In sum, Michael Collins Dunn claimed that "criticism of Egyptian lack of democracy is not because it is the worst Arab country in these matters, but because it is one of the best, but still falls so short of what it could be."

As Recount Concludes, Should Political Uncertainty Delay U.S. Withdrawal? The Baghdad recount results are in, and according to the Independent High Electoral Commission, "no fraud was found" among the 2.5 million Baghdad votes cast on March 7. The news is seen as a victory for Iyad Allawi's Iraqqiya coalition, which will likely retain its slim majority over Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's bloc.

However, the coalition bargaining remains unresolved, prompting a resurgence of debate over both the plausibility and wisdom of President Obama's troop withdrawal timeline. Arguing that the administration should "stick to the timetable," Gregg Carlstrom rejected the notion that maintaining high levels of U.S. forces will do anything to resolve political differences or speed the institutional development needed for good governance. Kevin Drum pointed to another Reuters report quoting a Pentagon official who reaffirmed the existing schedule for withdrawal while still allowing for a degree of "flexibility as long as the September 1 deadline was met." Drum still believes that "everyone from Obama on down on our side and from Maliki on down on the Iraqi side wants the withdrawal to go ahead on schedule."

Iraq De-Baathification Campaign Pronounced Over: Anthony Shadid of the New York Times reported that Iraqi politicians have reached an agreement to end the controversial - and some would argue, destabilizing - practice of disqualifying candidates with previous connections to Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. Last month, a special election court ruled that 52 such politicians be disqualified from parliament on account of prior Baath party affiliations. IraqPundit noted a lack of clear evidence confirming the news, while hoping that it is true: "Everyone I spoke with wishes the NYT report is accurate. Fingers crossed."

Former PM Allawi Sounds Off on Iraqi Concerns: In a unique interview with TIME magazine, former Iraqi prime minister Ayad Allawi was unsparing in his frustration with the current state of Iraqi politics, electoral jockeying and prospects for the country's success. He called on the United Nations to respect the results of the March 7th elections (where his Iraqiya party received the most seats) and elaborates on his unsuccessful efforts to reach out to rival and current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki. "What democracy is this?" he fumed. "It is a big joke." Equally as frustrated, CFR's Max Boot charged in a Los Angeles Times op-ed that Iraqi democracy was under threat due as much to Maliki's actions as to the Obama administration's inaction.

Despite "Calm and Organized" Lebanese Election, Problems Persist: Lebanon held its second roundof municipal elections in Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley, and although observers indicated that the process was calm and organized, exit polling suggested that voter turnout was low across the board. Only 21 percent of eligible Lebanese citizens showed up to cast their vote, a figure some attribute to the shift away from proportional representation and toward a majoritarian electoral system that makes it significantly more challenging for parties with modest popularity to succeed at the ballot box. Hezbollah may have compounded matters by announcing its intention to boycott the elections in Beirut in order to avoid provocative sectarian rhetoric "which would turn the elections from their democratic aspect to sectarian conflict."

However, after last week's opening round raised hopes of a clean and well-run electoral process, monitors from the Lebanese Association for Democratic Election (LADE) furnished evidence of increased bribery and widespread "vote-buying," prompting LADE executive director Ziad Abdel Samad to allude to the possibility of an electoral appeal. Meanwhile, Elias Muhanna provided a sharp analysis of the Michel Aoun-led Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and what this current electoral cycle means for its political prospects going forward.

Trouble Ahead in Sudan? After a troubled election, Sean Brooks painted a rather bleak picture of the prospects for "peace, protection, and justice" in Sudan moving forward, warning that if Sudan gets pushed to the U.S. policy backburner for another year, a "political resolution and return to normalcy" will be much more difficult in the future. A Los Angeles Times editoral urged a similar commitment of resources, saying a "multination diplomatic drive focused on Sudan should be at or near the top of the priority list for Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton" in order to ward off the "imminent danger of devastating conflict."

Afghan Government Shuts Down NGOs: After a "professional and legal investigation," the Afghan Ministry of Economics announced that it was dissolving 172 foreign and domestic NGOs - some at their own request, some for lack of funds, and others for "misconduct." The ruling was based upon the assessment of the Filtration and Dissolution Committee, established by President Karzai to monitor the activities of Afghanistan's 1,500 non-profit organizations. 

Also Worth Reading

In a piece at Foreign Policy, BYU professor Valerie M. Hudson teamed up with Patricia Leidl, an international communications consultant, to reveal what they believe is the single most glaring deficiency in U.S. policy toward Afghanistan: insufficient support for Afghan women. They highlight the alarming fact that 87 percent of Afghan women report being beaten on a regular basis. Hudson and Leidl argue that President Hamid Karzai's government not only fails in its most basic responsibility to protect women from abuse and discrimination, but also foments ill-treatment through "legislation that denies or severely limits women's rights to inherit, divorce, or have guardianship of their own children." Other laws legalize the rape of minors and allow men to "prohibit women's access to work, education, and health care by denying them the right to leave their homes except for 'legitimate' purposes."