How will the Georgian struggle affect Iraq?

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Every country looks to its own interests and in a direct conflict the most powerful will win. A few years back America and the Soviet Union were the world’s two superpowers. Through the medium of the Cold War they struggled to gain an edge over each other, from space exploration to the accumulation of thousands of nuclear weapons.

Ultimately, the Soviet Union’s centralised command economy proved unable to rival America’s far more diverse and flexible business and industrial sectors. As the Soviet economy weakened Gorbachev realised the old system could not be maintained. He embarked on a reform process which brought about democratisation and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In the 1990s ordinary Russian people struggled to survive as their country endured a period of political and economic upheaval. Wages went unpaid for months on end and many people only survived by growing their own food on any available piece of land. To an onlooker it may have seemed that Russia was finished as a major power but the Russian people are tough and they remember all the hard times they have survived.

Now, thanks to rising oil and gas prices, the Russian economy is strong and the Russian government is not in the mood to let America or any other country tell it what to do. We should remember that Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century – I believe this comment gives us a real insight into the hearts of many Russian people.

Growing Russian power and confidence challenges America and those like George Bush and Dick Cheney who think they can impose their version of democracy all over the world, using violence if necessary. America has a few more years left as the world’s unrivalled single superpower and it should use this time to develop a diplomacy which does not rely on threats and intimidation.

America’s recent policies in Eastern Europe have antagonised Russia for no good reason or purpose. Russia was disturbed by American support for Kosovan independence but seems to have decided to limit its disapproval to verbal protest. It would have been wise for America to accept its success in Kosovo quietly and graciously and avoid any immediate further moves that were likely to unsettle Russia. Instead America championed NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine and moved to sign a deal with Poland that would sight US missiles on Polish soil.

This background to the current conflict in Georgia serves only to prove the danger and long-term futility of ‘invasion diplomacy’. How can America protest so vehemently against Russian behaviour in Georgia after its invasion of Iraq? So far as the Russians are concerned they may feel like victors at the moment but may come to regret their promotion of ‘independence’ for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After all, if these two regions can leave Georgia why can’t Chechnya leave the Russian Federation? It seems Russia has been led by the speed of events into abandoning its long-proclaimed support for the territorial integrity of all nations.

A further twist in this tale is the question of Israel supplying arms to Georgia. This is surely a contradictory and short-sighted policy, given that Israel has a large, influential Russian Jewish population likely to question unthinking support for Georgia. Israel may be confident that America will always defend it but what realistic form can this defence take when faced with a strong opponent who possesses many nuclear weapons?

The turmoil and uncertainty caused by America’s invasion of Iraq and the Russian attack in Georgia shows the need for all states to observe and abide by international law and the Geneva Convention. Although strong states may be tempted to ignore these statutes they should realise that, in the long term, the rule of law is a far better defence against violence and anarchy than nuclear missiles. Violence takes life, law defends it.

London 27.08.2008
Khalid Issa Taha
Chairman: Lawyers Beyond Borders Organization
Registered Company No. 4647144
Attorney at Law & Legal Consultant
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