On the Pessimism and Optimism Concerning the Possibly Coming Outbreak in Egypt

Was published in Arabic in February, 18, 2016

Translated by Ahmed Fathy

Firstly:

1- Secure existence is linked in the Quran with Mecca and its Kaabah Shrine; see 2:125-126, 3:79, 28:57, and 29:67. Secure existence is linked as well to Egypt in the Quran; see 12:99. Qorayish tribe in Mecca is mentioned in the Quran as secured against hunger and fear, due to the existence of the Kaabah Shrine, see Chapter 106 in the Quran, while other tribes in Arabia at the time, the 7^th century A.D. suffered hunger and lack of security. Egypt is no longer enjoying security mentioned in 12:99. Egyptians witness now wars breaking out in their neighboring countries in Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. They wait for wars that would possibly come from Sudan and the KSA. To aggravate matters, the worst thing is the stifled anger among the Egyptians; everybody knows that strife will break out, but no one is sure about its timing.

2- Pessimists see no solution looming on the horizon; the Egyptian President seems to live in fear that leads him to enlist aid of Security Apparatuses never trusted by him; for he was a former Egyptian Central Intelligence man. Security Apparatuses men vie to secure him even if this means to quell the armless citizens. ISIS terrorists kill Egyptian policemen and soldiers in certain locations. Egyptian courts set free many criminals and killers; yet, they have ordered the imprisonment of some children and youths for trivial reasons. Police officers oppress Egyptians not only inside police stations, but also in streets, means of transportation, hospitals, and courts, aiming to preserve the current regime. A citizen might go missing for no reason or end up in the public morgue. This lack of security is perpetuated by security men! The Egyptian President is to blame for this; and also the generals of police and the military who give orders, within air-conditioned bureaus, to police officers of high and low ranks to terrorize the Egyptians. It is as if the Egyptians live in the empire of low-rank police officers, beating women, men, and children and the elderly in the streets.

3- Optimists see that the Egyptians can endure torture and oppression because they fear fates allotted to neighboring countries; Egyptians have collective memory of successive civilizations that made them feel so patient in suffering torture  and torment and oppression since Moses' Pharaoh until the current Egyptian President. The Egyptians fear the return of worse times of lack of security as in 2011, presumably caused by militias of the former interior ministry Habib Al-Adly. People feel such militias are waiting in a state of standby! Such militias might emerge in service of the current President if he is to mercilessly face a revolt or a revolution. This looming danger is worse than the oppression of police low-rank officers.

4- Pessimists see that the crisis of the US$ rates in Egypt will lead to more increases in prices. People would suffer hunger more and more. This might lead to more unemployment and closing down of remaining factories. Importation might stop. Tourists might not come to Egypt after the scandal of the Italian student who got killed and the crush of the Russian plane. Where are now the billions of US$ dollars that came from the Gulf monarchies to Egypt in the last two year? Why on earth no one managed to get Mubarak's money – and his cronies' money – from European banks? Are some other billions being smuggled now? Or is this a rumor?! Transparency needed on all levels. This is impossible within torture, torment, and oppression. Even hospitals that treat victims of torture are being closed down!

5- Optimists see that even there are billions being smuggled and in case the Egyptian Treasury is empty, some smuggled billions will enter Egypt to diffuse any crises, especially the exchange rates of the US$, like the cases when several previous crises ended.

6- Both optimists and pessimists agree on the possibility that the Egyptian President will not complete his presidential term. He has no competitors – after crushing the terrorist MB group members and the neutralizing of the Salafists – except other military generals. The military institution is hierarchical and pyramidal entity where low ranks respect higher ranks. Other military generals might feel envious of the current Egyptian President. If he fails to contain the situation, he might lose the military grip over Egypt that started in 1952. We presume there is a conflict between the General Central Intelligence of Egypt and the Military Intelligence. The former is the older one with all its stature and expertise, and the latter is the ruling one now. Inevitable struggle will ensue. If the Egyptian President poses as a threat to make the military lose Egypt, he might get deposed by the military, as done with Mubarak.

7- Optimists and pessimists will disagree here; the latter assume that the military will oust the Egyptian President to diffuse any crises within the military. The former see that things will remain the same with little interference on the part of the military. They see that no possible revolt would be allowed at any costs; police officers should chastise people! Hunger would either increase or incite the desire to revolt yet again. The military leaders, we assume, are negotiating with the Egyptian President to control more areas in Egypt and in its economy and government. They might depose him if he does not respond to their demands and if this act might postpone a possible revolt for months or years.

8- Optimists and pessimists forget one factor; the critical bloc in the military and within the nation. We mean lower and middle ranks among the military and the police; they cannot be in service of the higher filthily rich ranks for long. Turmoil, assassinations, and upheavals might occur; this will lead to a revolt or a full-fledged revolution. Some of these lower ranks are respectable men who dislike immensely the corrupt higher ranks. Protests will lead inevitably to revolts. The critical block will break out this revolt on all levels within social strata. Police officers who are corrupt will fear such critical bloc among their men. They will realize they are tools and possible scapegoats within the hands of high-rank men who will remain unscathed. Hell will be unleashed if conditions remain unchanged; oppressed people are bound to revolt one day. The results of such outbreak are unknown. We hope not to see bloodshed in Egypt; the very first victims would be the generals and their cronies. Such bloodshed might cause thousands of victims (killed or injured or homeless) which might be worse in comparison to conditions of Syria and Iraq.

Lastly:

 We give this piece of advice to generals of Egypt: be just and fair or step out of the Egyptian ruling regime!