I am often asked if and why Copts are concerned about what is going on in Egypt.  I try to explain that all of Egypt is concerned but of course as a minority, the Copts are doubly so.  The problem is that Islamist rhetoric since the beginning of the Arab Spring, has been very disturbing when it comes to Copts – wavering between trying to placate them to trying to delegate them to secondary citizen positions. And then of course the obnoxious commentary such as denying their very existence (link), which I will not get into in this article.

The fact is that Copts have been increasingly concerned long before the Arab Spring. It is true that the late Pope Shenouda said shortly before he died, that the Mubarak era was one of the best eras for the Copts, I strongly believe his sentiment was not shared by many Copts, including myself.  Time and again incidents against Copts go unpunished, from the very subtle to the outright violent. The heavy-handed approach of the regime was no help either. It created even more resentment against them.

Immediately prior to the Arab Spring there were several disturbing and alarming incidents: Salafi demonstrations against the Pope in 2010 (link) which happen to be very unique for  two main reasons: first, because no one had ever cursed the Pope so openly and in a demonstration, and second because it occurred in Cairo proper rather than in the outskirts or villages where most incidents occur. There were also the two Christmas 2010 (link) and New Year’s 2011 (link)  incidents; the Omraneya incident (link), the shooting of Copts on a train in 2011 (link) , and many many more. Perhaps one of the main turning points in the events regarding the Copts happened during Mubarak’s regime: stories of an alleged Church ‘kidnap’ of two Christian women, one of them a priest’s wife, to convert them back to Christianity surfaced. A prominent Islamist scholar Selim al Awwa announced that churches were full of weapons and that it was a Muslim’s duty to free the kidnapped women and that churches and monasteries need to be inspected because they were ‘preparing for a war’ against Muslims (link).  Al Awwa later recanted and then apologized but it was  too little too late. He was, after all, the first to claim that the bombing of the Alexandria Church on New Year’s eve was ‘not sectarian’ (link).

But Copts outside of Cairo have been, and continue to be, particularly vulnerable. Not to reiterate all the incidents, suffice it to say that they all ended with the Copts agreeing to terms that show there is no rule of law.  From the acceptance of not showing crosses outside the church building (link and link) to not putting crosses or images INSIDE churches (link), and from eviction of Copts in Amereya, Alexandria and others (link and link) to harassment of monks (link), and from firing warning shots at them to burning down their homes (link) and in at least one extreme case, after burning a Copt’s home in Qena, Upper Egypt, the Islamists proceeded to cut his ear (link) and the perpetrators were recently freed by a court (link), the situation of the Coptic minority has been increasingly alarming.

When the Copts took to the streets in October 2011 to protest the burning of the Marinab Church in Aswan, Upper Egypt, because the church allegedly did not have a license to build,  the army reacted with violence equal to that of the February 11th violence that brought down Mubarak’s regime. In what came to be known as the Maspero Incident, 28 Copts were killed, many run over by army tanks, and over 300 wounded (link).

The latest incident occurred April 25th, 2012 – not mentioned in newspapers except in the leftist newspaper Al Ahaly, concerns the historic 4th century monastery known as St. Shenouda the Archmanidrite in Sohag (link). But even the newspaper wrote that the monastery has been attacked by ‘thugs’ or ‘outlaws’ not really pinpointing the real perpetrator except in passing within the article.  Those ‘thugs’ were accompanied by archeology officials and were going for a land grab. They stole electric cables and uprooted trees and fired shots in the air to terrorize the monks. When the monks complained to the police, the usual happened: they brought them with the ‘thugs’ & made the latter sign a pledge to not attack the monastery again. The following day, the monastery was attacked again. The monks called police who came to ‘protect’ the monastery but the monks continue to be terrified of the time when the police will leave.

Add to all of the above, the death of Pope Shenouda, in March 2012, which struck the general Coptic populace quite severely because he represented to them their last solace and support. They felt more vulnerable than ever before, given that the majority of the current Coptic population have not known another pope besides him in their lifetime.  Even his death created a larger rift between the Islamists and the Coptic people when the Salafi parliamentarians no less, decided not to stand in a moment of silent respect and mourning for the Pope during a parliamentary session, saying they would not ‘mourn’ an infidel (link). Later their spokesperson approved of their action and said it was ‘unIslamic’ to mourn a pope (link).

So how are Copts reacting?

On the positive side, Copts have become more involved in politics than ever before since the 1952 revolution that brought down the monarchy. Some of them even disobeyed the Church in its positions vis as vis the ruling military junta. A Maspero Coptic Union was formed that includes many Copts of different walks of life, looking after Coptic demands in the post-revolution era. However many young Copts in particular have been active in the revolution, almost all of whom were active not as ‘Copts’ but as ‘Egyptians’.

But on the other hand, according to parliamentarians, 100 thousand Coptic families left Egypt following the Arab Spring revolution (link). My friends also tell me they have seen Coptic families arriving to the US directly from the airport to local Coptic churches with only their luggage and the clothes on their backs, asking for help. In my own family, for the first time, many Copts who had vowed never to leave Egypt under any circumstances, are now seriously considering leaving, even if temporarily.

Placating the Copts:

While none of the Coptic parliamentary candidates won,  in typical Mubarak-era fashion, the military junta appointed 4 Copts to parliament, among them a woman, thus striking two birds with one stone.  As Copts watch the on-going presidential elections warily, the candidates have been trying to placate them and win their votes. After all, the Copts are a voting block that is worthy of wooing.

Presidential candidate and former intelligence chief Omar Soliman, now banned from running, had announced that he would appoint a “Copt, a woman, and Islamist’ as his vice presidents (link). Current presidential candidate and former regime VP announced exactly the same plan: “a Copt, a woman and an Islamist” (link). Amr Moussa, former foreign minister and current candidate announced he would ‘eliminate all forms of discrimination’ against the Copts (link). Islamist Abul Fottouh has consistently said he would support Coptic rights as equal citizens (link). Nasserist Hamdeen Sabahi repeatedly stressed Coptic rights and even noted that they had ‘suffered from overt and covert discrimination’ (link). Ultra-conservative AbuIsmail, now banned from the presidential race,  claims that Copts support him – a claim as unverified as almost all his other claims. Muslim Brotherhood’s Al Shater, now banned from running, tried reassuring Copts through unspecific statements such as ‘Copts should have nothing to fear from Islamists’ (link) but went on to say that “neither Copts nor women are to take high ranking positions in government (link). Morsi, his current replacement, says he will win Coptic votes because they ‘are looking for Islamic Sharia’a” (link).  He also added that the “situation of the Copts is better now after the revolution” (link).

Not to mention of course parties themselves: the Muslim Brotherhood’s alWasat party has a Coptic token member who has been with it since its foundation, namely Rafik Habib. AlKotla liberal party was the only party that actually attracted the Copts because it was based on a civil, inclusive and non-religious platform.  Currently al Dostoor, which is ElBaradei’s newly formed party also witnessed Coptic support, although many non-political Copts continue to support Amr Moussa, based on the ‘devil they know’ concept.

Quo vadis?

A difficult question to answer since no one knows where Egypt itself is heading. Traditionally, Copts have been a wealthy minority with limited political power.   Now they should expect even less political power. Needless to say that in spite of all the rhetoric and promises of the support and lack of discrimination that is to come, the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi parliament has excluded Copts and the Coptic church from the constitution drafting committee. It comes as no surprise since they have excluded everyone else except themselves.

The answer to the quo vadis question is dependent on many factors: first, what are the real plans of the seemingly-confused ruling military? will they in fact dissolve parliament? do they actually have a president in mind? how much power are they willing to forgo to the Islamists? Second, how much tolerance do the Copts have? will those who can leave, do so or will they stay? if they stay, will they continue to be involved in politics after the Arab Spring awakening? how much space will they be given to act on their own?

Difficult questions with as yet unclear answers. The fog has yet to be lifted.