By: Imran Zafar writing for the Independent and the Tribune. Filed from
      Islamabad, Dubai and London.
Was it Pilot error, maintenance fault, catastrophic structural failure,
weather problem or what  was said initially by two credible eye
witnesses and now being said by many that a hand held missile fired
from a no fly zone brought it down.

  Let us take all rationale one by one. Pilot error was one of the
leading possibilities, but the captain was one of the most experienced
pilots in the industry. The flight conditions were also not so
difficult to cause any major concern for such a professional
individual.

The last conversation with the Air traffic tower also
indicates no worry or panic on the ill fated flight deck. However, one
pilot error seems evident and that is straying over the red zone that
is the diplomatic enclave.

  Maintenance fault is another possible cause. That to seems a remote
eventuality because the airliner had a day back gone through a
complete systems and structural check. Only the tires were to be
changed after another forty touch downs. Pressure drop within cabin at
the low altitude could also not cause a crash. So, maintenance fault
also is ruled out.

  Catastrophic structural failure is another view point. The crashed
aircraft was manufactured in year 2000 and was inducted in the Air
Blue fleet in year 2006. It had only logged about twenty thousand
hours since 2000. No structural failure,unnecessary stress or cracks
in air frame can occur in the flying hours or touchdowns incurred by
the doomed plane. Thus, this is another theory which seems
implausible.

  Weather conditions is the most talked about reason for the crash.
However, it is also the least likely. There were no strong winds and
neither was visibility very bad. All commercial airliners of this type
have latest instrument landing facility, and in fact even if the
pilots are incapacitated, and visibility is zero these aircraft can
touch down.

Icing on wings is another weather condition that can be
dangerous but that aspect never existed. Moreover, two flights landed
just minutes before Air Blue's crash. Weather conditions  looks like
the remotest possibility for the downing of the plane.

  Finally we come to the speculation that the airliner was brought
down by a hand held missile fired from the Red Zone (the diplomatic
enclave). Here comes the issue of pilot error. Civil Aviation
Authorities on condition of anonymity have categorically stated that
pilot erred in his go round and went over the United States Embassy
complex.

Americans had without mincing words told Civil Aviation
Authorities about one month back that they will take action if any
object overflys their complex. Two credible witnesses saw a smoke
trail emanating from the USA embassy complex and terminating at the
right wing of the ill fated plane. Both persons were visited by
Islamabad's Administration and Americans and now are meeting nobody.
The way the aircraft dipped before crashing  only happens if a wing
has a shear or a major rupture.

The fire that engulfed the crash site
also indicates explosive-driven force. One Black Box in which the
pilots last cockpit talk should be is missing. Then there is the issue
of American embassy and Blackwater vehicles being seen throughout at
the crash site. Also, the USA was the first to condole about the crash
and also mention bad weather. Also why did President Obama himself
ring up? Is this standard protocol?

Does he do it for all air crashes?
Why have four persons from USA's embassy been moved out of Pakistan
that same night. Sources say that all four were private contractors (in
other words Blackwater or mercenaries manning security posts around
the embassy). Some people also say that a top secret meeting at time
of the crash was on going in the embassy between Anne Patterson and
the two major American supporters in Pakistan.

All in all it seems that
the ill fated Air Blue flight has met the same fate as the Iranian
airliner shot down in 1990s in the Gulf by an American naval ship
because it flew over it. Pakistan's Naval Attaché to Iran and his
family were killed in that cold blooded murder. Now it seems scores of
Pakistanis have been killed in the same manner over the skies of our
nations capital.

It is very clear we will never know what happened to the Air Blue
flight that July 2010 evening.
 

 Imran Zafar writing for the Independent and the Tribune. Filed from
Islamabad, Dubai and London.